Canada’s immigration backlog has increased to 2,292,400 applications, up from 2,220,000 in the previous month. As of June 30, 2024, 936,600 applications were in the backlog, this is a rise of 6.62% when compared to the data as of May 31,2024.The system is also grappling with a significant backlog of temporary residency applications, which increased by 11.13% month-on-month. This article analyzes immigration backlog trends, implications, and future projections.
The current state of Canada’s Immigration Backlog
Canada’s immigration backlog, as of June 30, 2024, is 936,600 applications, divided into citizenship, permanent residency, and temporary residency. Despite a cap on international students, the backlog has increased for temporary residency applications. Permanent residency applications also contribute to the backlog, with a slight increase. However, for citizenship applicants, the backlog has reduced by nearly 6%, and most applications are now being processed within service standards. This indicates a significant increase in new temporary applications and an overall backlog.
This backlog is segmented into three main categories: citizenship, permanent residency, and temporary residency.
Here’s a breakdown of these categories:
Application type | Applications in backlog as of June 30 | Applications in backlog as of May 31 | Month-on-Month Backlog Change |
Citizenship | 40,500 | 43,000 | -5.81% |
Permanent Residency | 3,01,800 | 3,00,600 | 0.40% |
Temporary Residency | 5,94,300 | 5,34,800 | 11.13% |
Total | 9,36,600 | 8,78,400 | 6.63% |
Applications Within Service Standards
Despite the staggering backlog, it’s important to note that a substantial number of applications are being processed within service standards there is a significant backlog, the Canadian immigration system is still managing to process a large volume of applications. These changes indicate a complex and fluctuating landscape, with different types of applications experiencing varying levels of processing efficiency and demand.
As of June 30, 2024, the figures for applications within service standards are as follows:
Application type | Applications Within Service Standards as of June 30 | Applications Within Service Standards as of May 31 | Month-on-Month Change |
Citizenship | 1,98,900 | 2,08,200 | -4.47% |
Permanent Residency | 4,51,900 | 4,44,700 | 1.62% |
Temporary Residency | 7,05,000 | 6,88,700 | 2.37% |
Total | 13,55,800 | 13,41,600 | 1.06% |
Future Projections
IRCC also shares future projections of backlog in context with the set service standards of processing 80% of the applications within that timeframe.
Below are the official IRCC backlog projections:
Category | Backlog projected by end of July 2024 | Actual Backlogat the end of June 2024 | What IRCC Projected at the end of June 2024 |
Citizenship | 10% | 16% | 17% |
Express Entry | 15% | 16% | 15% |
Express Entry PNP | 20% | 25% | 20% |
Spouses, partners, and children (except for Quebec) | 15% | 14% | 15% |
Temporary Resident Visas (TRV) | 60% | 62% | 58% |
Study Permits | 12% | 17% | 7% |
Work Permits | 28% | 46% | 46% |
Seasonal Variations and Processing Capacity
Canada’s immigration backlog is a complex issue that requires a strategic approach to manage. Seasonal variations, such as summer months, can lead to a surge in tourist and student visa applications. To manage this, immigration authorities could increase processing capacity or implement automated systems. The federal government plans to reduce the non-PR population to 5% by 2027, but the backlog still presents a significant challenge.
To manage the backlog, Canada can implement policy reforms, leverage technological innovations, and strategically allocate resources. By addressing the issue, Canada can continue to be a model for other countries and reduce the non-PR population to 5% by 2027.
