Canada’s international student pipeline has been cut so abruptly that the latest IRCC data looks less like a slowdown and more like a system reset.
According to IRCC’s most recent monthly arrivals table, just 2,485 new study permits were issued in November 2025.
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That figure stands in stark contrast to December 2023, which recorded 95,320 new study permits—the highest monthly total in the past two years. The comparison explains why headlines claiming a “97% drop” in international students are now circulating widely across media and social platforms.
Recent reporting notes that IRCC has framed the collapse as proof that recent controls are “working.” The department’s own public commentary echoes that message, calling the decline “a clear sign that the measures we’ve put in place are working,” and linking it to the federal goal of reducing temporary resident numbers to more sustainable levels.
This article explains what the numbers actually measure, why the drop happened so fast, and which policy levers had the greatest impact.
What IRCC’s “student arrivals” data actually measures
Before comparing November 2025 to December 2023, it’s essential to understand what IRCC is counting.
IRCC’s “new student arrivals to Canada” metric is not a count of people crossing the border. It is a permit issuance metric.
IRCC defines arrivals as “the number of people issued study or work permits in that month.” If someone receives both a study permit and a work permit in the same month, they are counted under study permits.
That definition matters because it clears up three common misconceptions:
- The data tracks permit issuance activity, not physical arrivals.
- Extensions are excluded, because they are not new permits.
- The metric is designed to capture new pressures on housing and services, not the total student population already in Canada.
IRCC also explicitly excludes asylum claimants and permit extensions from this dataset.
So when people say “student arrivals collapsed,” what they are really describing is a collapse in the monthly number of newly issued study permits.
The data points behind the “97% drop”
The table driving the headlines is straightforward:
- December 2023: 95,320 new study permits issued
- November 2025: 2,485 new study permits issued
Because 2,485 is roughly 2.6% of 95,320, the “97% drop” framing is mathematically correct.
But the same dataset shows this is not a one-off anomaly. It reflects a sustained contraction across multiple intake cycles.
IRCC’s own figures highlight several trend-defining months:
- August 2024: 79,745 new students
- August 2025: 45,065 new students
That comparison matters because August is traditionally the largest intake month ahead of the fall semester—something IRCC explicitly acknowledges.
IRCC also quantifies the broader shift:
- All new students and workers combined: 52% fewer arrivals between January–November 2025 compared to the same period in 2024 (down 334,845).
- Students only: 60% fewer new student arrivals over the same period (down 157,380).
A simplified snapshot of the key months driving coverage looks like this:
| Month | New student permits | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 2023 | 95,320 | Highest month in the two-year window |
| Aug 2024 | 79,745 | Peak intake before full cap tightening |
| Aug 2025 | 45,065 | Peak intake after restrictions |
| Nov 2025 | 2,485 | Trough month behind “97% drop” headlines |
Why the “97%” figure is real—but incomplete
The number itself is accurate, but without context it can mislead.
December is not a normal month. IRCC notes seasonal issuance spikes in December and August, when permits are finalized ahead of winter and fall semesters. Comparing a trough month (November 2025) to a peak month (December 2023) will naturally exaggerate the perceived collapse.
That said, the broader pattern is unmistakable:
- Peak months are dramatically lower year over year.
- Non-peak months have fallen even further.
- January–November 2025 totals are far below 2024, with IRCC confirming a 60% decline in student arrivals.
The correct takeaway is not that students “disappeared,” but that Canada’s study permit funnel has been tightened so aggressively that even peak intake months are now structurally smaller.
Why the decline happened so fast
The drop was not accidental. It was the result of deliberate policy choices.
The easiest way to understand the speed of the decline is to see the system as a funnel that was tightened at multiple points simultaneously:
- A hard cap on how many applications IRCC accepts for processing
- Provincial and territorial attestation letters (PAL/TAL) that can cause applications to be returned outright
- Higher financial thresholds
- Stronger fraud and integrity screening
- Normalization of student work rules, reducing work-first incentives
IRCC’s public messaging makes the objective explicit: reduce the temporary population, ease pressure on housing and services, and restore “sustainability.”
The cap: the most powerful lever
The cap introduced in 2024 is the single most important factor. It limits how many study permit applications IRCC will even process in a given year.
IRCC describes the cap as an “effective tool” for slowing growth in the temporary resident population. By definition, fewer processed applications means fewer approvals—and fewer permits issued each month.
PAL and TAL turned study permits into a rationed system
Once the cap was introduced, most applicants were required to submit a provincial or territorial attestation letter confirming a seat within a jurisdiction’s allocation.
This was not a minor procedural change. Applications missing a PAL or TAL can be returned without processing, immediately suppressing issuance numbers.
In 2025, IRCC extended the requirement to master’s and doctoral students and to most applicants applying from within Canada, while reserving cap space for graduate students.
2026 is not a return to the old system
In November 2025, IRCC published its 2026 framework. Controls remain firmly in place.
IRCC expects to issue up to 408,000 study permits in 2026, including:
- 155,000 to new international students
- 253,000 for extensions
That total is 7% lower than 2025 and 16% lower than 2024, confirming the program has been structurally resized.
A targeted exemption for graduate students
One notable change: starting January 1, 2026, master’s and doctoral students at public DLIs will be exempt from PAL/TAL requirements.
This is a targeted adjustment, not a rollback. The cap remains; IRCC is simply prioritizing cohorts it views as high-value for research and innovation.
Fraud controls and LOA verification tightened approvals
The second major lever is integrity.
IRCC has repeatedly cited letter-of-acceptance fraud as a driver of reform. Mandatory LOA verification has been in place since December 1, 2023—the same month as the last major issuance peak.
In practice, verification reshapes risk profiles:
- Weak files tied to questionable agents are easier to refuse
- Schools face higher compliance pressure
- Refusal rates rise in markets where fraudulent documentation was common
The result is not just fewer applications, but fewer approvals converting into permits, directly reducing monthly issuance.
What this means for colleges and universities
International tuition has become a core funding pillar for many institutions, particularly colleges.
When new inflows collapse, the effects show up quickly:
- Fewer first-year tuition payments
- Under-filled residences
- Program viability concerns
- Staffing pressure and budget cuts
Recent Global Enrolment Benchmark Survey coverage shows Canada facing some of the steepest enrollment declines among peer destinations, with 60% of universities expecting budget cuts and 50% anticipating staff reductions.
This is not just an immigration story—it is a post-secondary funding crisis.
What this means for housing and local economies
Ottawa introduced the cap in response to housing shortages and service strain.
The local impacts are uneven:
- Cities with heavy private-college footprints are seeing faster rental softening
- Diversified university cities feel less immediate relief
- Landlords built around dense student housing face rising vacancy risk
The student cap functions as both an immigration control and a housing policy lever.
The bottom line
IRCC’s monthly data shows a dramatic collapse in new study permit issuance from the December 2023 peak to the November 2025 trough—and the decline holds even during traditional peak months.
The cause is layered: a hard cap, PAL/TAL gatekeeping, and stricter LOA verification all reinforce a system no longer designed for volume.
Canada is not closing the door. But the successful applicant in 2026 will be more selective, more financially prepared, and far more exposed to documentation and credibility checks than during the growth years.
Plan carefully, choose the right institution, and build a defensible application—and Canada remains open.
Treat the system as a shortcut, and it is now designed to filter you out.
