As February 2026 approaches, Canada’s Express Entry system is entering a pivotal phase. One clear storyline dominates: sustained, high-volume Canadian Experience Class (CEC) draws are finally applying real downward pressure on the top of the CRS pool.
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The most recent round, the January 21, 2026 CEC draw, issued 6,000 Invitations to Apply (ITAs) with a cutoff score of 509. Combined with the earlier January 7 draw of 8,000 ITAs at 511, IRCC removed 14,000 CEC candidates in just three weeks—an unusually aggressive pace.
If IRCC maintains the operating rhythm it has followed since late October 2025, early February should look very familiar.
What to Expect Next Week
Based on recent patterns, the most likely sequence is:
- A Provincial Nominee Program (PNP) draw early in the week
- A CEC draw later in the same week
- An optional category-based draw (French or healthcare) either late in the week or shortly after
This forecast is grounded in observed draw behaviour since October 27, 2025 and supported by the latest Express Entry pool composition data.
Key Takeaways for February 2026
- February is most likely to open with a PNP draw, followed by a CEC draw.
- CEC cutoffs are trending downward because IRCC removed 14,000 CEC candidates in January alone.
- As of the January 19 pool snapshot, there were 16,341 candidates in the 501–600 CRS range and 677 candidates above 600.
- The Express Entry pool refills quickly as new candidates become eligible, especially during periods of optimism driven by large draws.
- A CEC cutoff below 500 is possible in February, but not guaranteed. It depends on draw size, frequency, and how quickly new 500+ profiles enter the pool.
Where the Pool Likely Stands Now
The most reliable starting point for forecasting February cutoffs is the January 19, 2026 pool snapshot—the last “clean” snapshot before the January 20 and 21 draws.
At that time:
- The total pool stood at 237,120 candidates.
- The 501–600 range had already shrunk by 5,451 profiles since mid-December.
- The 451–500 range continued to grow, adding over 4,000 profiles across the last three snapshots.
- The largest growth occurred in the 471–480 and 491–500 ranges.
Despite 13,000 ITAs issued between December 14 and January 21, only about half of the expected reduction appeared in the 501–600 range. This illustrates how rapidly new high-scoring profiles enter the system.
Accounting for new entries and the January 21 CEC draw, it is reasonable to estimate that the 501–600 band now sits closer to 13,000–13,500 candidates.
Why CEC and PNP Draws Behave Differently
Two mechanics matter most for forecasting:
- CEC draws primarily pull from the 501–600 CRS band when cutoffs hover around 500.
- PNP draws pull from candidates with nominations, almost all of whom fall in the 600+ range (often 680–1200).
This is why CEC cutoffs trend gradually while PNP cutoffs remain volatile.
IRCC’s Post-October Draw Pattern
IRCC does not publish a fixed draw schedule, but its behaviour since October 27, 2025 has been remarkably consistent:
- Start of the week: PNP draw
- Mid-week: CEC draw
- Optional: category-based draw (on/off depending on policy priorities)
This rhythm has repeated through November, December, and January, making it the most reliable basis for forecasting early February.
Early February 2026 Draw Forecast
Expected Draw Sequence and CRS Ranges
Feb 2–3
- PNP draw
- 400–900 ITAs
- CRS cutoff: 715–755
- PNP cutoffs remain nomination-driven, not pool-depth-driven.
Feb 3–4
- CEC draw
- 4,000–7,000 ITAs
- CRS cutoff: 503–507
- January’s progression from 515 → 511 → 509 supports further decline.
Feb 4–6 (optional)
- Category-based draw
- French: CRS 395–410
- Healthcare: CRS 470–485
Why a 503–507 CEC Cutoff Is Realistic
On January 19, there were 16,341 candidates in the 501–600 range. The January 21 CEC draw alone removed 6,000 candidates at a 509 cutoff.
Importantly, invite lists include:
- Candidates already above the cutoff
- Candidates who recently gained CRS points
- New profiles created after the snapshot but scoring high enough to qualify
While new profiles enter the pool weekly, downward pressure remains as long as:
- CEC draw sizes stay at 4,000+ ITAs, and
- Draws occur frequently enough to prevent full pool replenishment above the cutoff.
Could CEC Cutoffs Drop Below 500 in February?
Yes—but only under specific conditions.
More likely if:
- IRCC runs another large CEC draw (5,000+ ITAs) in early February
- A second large CEC draw follows in mid-February
Less likely if:
- CEC draw sizes fall back to 1,000–2,000 ITAs
- IRCC skips a CEC draw altogether
- Category-based rounds absorb most weekly ITAs
Below-500 is a probability-based scenario, not a promise. Volume and frequency are the decisive factors.
Why February Could Move Faster Than Expected
February often becomes a momentum month once IRCC commits to a strategy. Current data suggests that strategy includes:
- Regular PNP draws
- Repeated, high-volume CEC draws
- Periodic category-based rounds aligned with policy priorities
This creates compounding effects:
- Large CEC draws meaningfully reduce the 500+ band
- The 501–600 range is big enough to sustain multiple draws but small enough to shift quickly
- New profile inflow would need to be exceptionally strong to offset repeated 5,000–8,000 ITA removals
February 2026 CRS Predictions (Base Case)
- PNP (Feb 2–3): CRS 715–755 | 500–800 ITAs
- CEC (Feb 4–5): CRS 503–507 | 5,000–6,000 ITAs
- Category (optional):
- French: CRS 395–410 (large round)
- Healthcare: CRS 470–485 (smaller round)
If CEC volume drops: Cutoffs could rebound to 510–520
If IRCC stays aggressive: Mid-February could approach 498–503
What Candidates Should Watch in Early February
Signals supporting falling CEC cutoffs
- Another 5,000+ ITA CEC draw
- Cutoff dropping again from 509
- Short gaps between rounds
Signals weakening the below-500 narrative
- Smaller CEC rounds
- A pause in CEC draws
- Category rounds replacing CEC volume
Signals affecting PNP
- Larger-than-usual PNP rounds
- PNP cutoffs dipping into the high-600s/low-700s
Bottom Line
February 2026 is shaping up to be a momentum month for Express Entry. IRCC has shown a repeatable pattern: PNP first, CEC next, and occasional category-based rounds layered on top.
If that pattern holds and CEC volumes remain high, the most realistic early-February outcome is a CEC cutoff in the low 500s—with a credible pathway toward the high 490s later in 2026 under an aggressive volume scenario.
PNP cutoffs, meanwhile, should remain volatile in the low-to-mid 700s, driven by nomination flow rather than general pool depth.
The clean expectation: a PNP draw early next week, a CEC draw later in the week, and category-based rounds as optional add-ons that may shape short-term headlines without altering the long-term trend.
Disclaimer: All February 2026 Express Entry draw dates, formats, and CRS cutoffs are estimates based on recent patterns and available pool data. IRCC may change draw timing, type, invitation numbers, or minimum scores at any time without notice.
