Future of CEC Express Entry Draws: What to Expect in 2024
Overview
Canada has resumed Canadian Experience Class (CEC) Express Entry draws after a 32-month hiatus. This marks a positive turn for many CEC candidates. Here’s what to anticipate for the rest of 2024 based on current trends and data.
Invitations for 2024
From June to December 2024, an estimated 68,000 more Invitations to Apply (ITAs) will be issued. The total number of ITAs expected for 2024 is around 110,000, with approximately 41,955 ITAs already issued by May 31.
Breakdown of Invitations
Based on historical data and the current annual target, the IRCC is likely to issue around 9,700 ITAs monthly. A significant portion of these will be allocated to general draws, including the CEC draws, which are expected to constitute around 40% of all ITAs.
CEC-Specific Draws
CEC draws have resumed due to an increased focus on transitioning temporary residents to permanent status as a measure to address housing issues. CEC-specific draw invitations are anticipated to maintain a high CRS (Comprehensive Ranking System) cutoff score, likely above 500. Candidates are advised to seek ways to boost their CRS scores as cutoffs dropping below 450 are improbable.
Upcoming Draws
The next Express Entry draw is anticipated between June 11–13, continuing the biweekly pattern. However, the IRCC may deviate from this schedule.
Comparing Express Entry Draws: 2023 vs. 2024
In the first half of 2024, the Express Entry system saw significant changes compared to the same period in 2023. Here’s a breakdown:
Key Differences:
- Number of Draws:
- 2023: 13 draws.
- 2024: 19 draws.
- Invitations to Apply (ITAs):
- 2023: 49,948 ITAs issued.
- 2024: 41,855 ITAs issued.
- Draw Types:
- 2023: General, PNP, FSWP specific.
- 2024: General, French proficiency, Healthcare, Agriculture, Transport, STEM, PNP, CEC specific.
Trends and Implications:
- 2024 Changes: Introduction of category-based selections targeting specific occupations and language proficiencies.
- CRS Scores:
- 2023: Average cut-off of 489.
- 2024: Higher average cut-off of 536.
- Draw Sizes:
- 2023: Larger average draw size (5,475 ITAs).
- 2024: Smaller average draw size (1,605 ITAs).
Looking Ahead:
The higher immigration target for 2024 (110,770) compared to 2023 (82,800) suggests more ITAs may be issued in the latter half of 2024 to meet these goals. This might lead to more frequent or larger draws in the coming months.
Conclusion
CEC candidates can expect regular draw invitations moving forward, but should prepare for high CRS cutoffs. The focus remains on converting temporary residents to permanent ones, aligning with Canada’s broader immigration goals.
