Justin Trudeau is reportedly preparing to step down as leader of the Liberal Party, amid mounting internal dissatisfaction, plummeting public approval, and rising support for Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives. Although no official statement has been made, sources suggest Trudeau’s resignation could come as early as Monday, just before an important Liberal caucus meeting on Wednesday.
Reasons Behind Justin Trudeau’s Resignation
Several factors seem to be driving Trudeau’s decision to resign:
- Caucus Revolt: Internal discontent within the Liberal Party is intensifying, particularly among MPs from the Atlantic, Ontario, and Quebec regions. Together, these MPs represent 131 of the party’s 153 seats in the House of Commons. Many have reportedly withdrawn their support for Trudeau and are calling for him to step down to make way for new leadership.
- Declining Public Support: The Liberal Party’s standing in the polls has sharply declined, with the Conservatives now holding a commanding 26-point lead under Poilievre. According to an Angus Reid poll, support for the Liberals under Trudeau has fallen to just 13%. However, support for the party could rise to 21% if a new leader takes the helm.
- Freeland’s Resignation: The sudden resignation of Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland on December 16 has added fuel to the calls for Trudeau’s departure. Disagreements between Freeland and Trudeau over policies like the GST holiday and rebate programs, as well as his handling of trade relations with the U.S., have reportedly led to a breakdown in their relationship.
- Challenges at Home and Abroad: Trudeau’s leadership has been challenged by both domestic and international issues. His ability to manage key relationships, particularly with the U.S. regarding trade, and to address the economic fallout from his domestic policies has raised questions about his effectiveness as a leader.
What’s Next for the Liberal Party?
The Liberal Party now faces crucial decisions about how to move forward:
- Interim Leadership The party may decide to appoint an interim leader, as recommended by the national caucus. Finance Minister Dominic LeBlanc is a potential candidate for this role, although his ambitions for permanent leadership could complicate matters. Alberta Liberal MP George Chahal has also called for an interim leader.
- Leadership Race The party could opt for a leadership race, which traditionally takes at least four months according to the party’s constitution. However, experts warn that rushing the contest could undermine its legitimacy. During this period, Trudeau could remain in office as Prime Minister.
- Prorogation of Parliament If a leadership race is called, Trudeau may request that Parliament be prorogued, suspending its current session. However, this move could be met with significant resistance, especially with an important supply vote scheduled for March 28.
Who Could Replace Trudeau?
Speculation about who will succeed Trudeau is rife. Potential candidates include:
- Mélanie Joly: The Foreign Affairs Minister is seen as a leading contender, praised for her diplomatic skills and strong support within the party.
- Dominic LeBlanc: A long-time ally of Trudeau and current Finance Minister, LeBlanc is often mentioned as a natural successor.
- Chrystia Freeland: Despite her recent resignation, Freeland remains a prominent figure in the party, with polling suggesting she could increase Liberal support to 21%.
- François-Philippe Champagne: As Innovation Minister, Champagne could appeal to centrist voters and is considered a strong contender.
- Anita Anand: The Transport Minister, known for her leadership during the COVID-19 vaccine rollout, could also be a potential candidate.
- Mark Carney: The former central banker and economic heavyweight is frequently cited as an outsider candidate.
- Christy Clark: The former B.C. Premier’s name has been mentioned, though her candidacy would be unconventional.
Will Trudeau’s Resignation Trigger an Election?
Trudeau’s resignation does not automatically lead to a federal election. If an interim leader is chosen from the current Liberal caucus, they would immediately assume the role of Prime Minister, and an election would not be necessary unless a no-confidence vote is passed in Parliament.
If the new leader is not a sitting MP, a by-election would be required for them to secure a seat. However, given the party’s declining popularity, finding a “safe seat” for a new leader may be challenging. A no-confidence vote, supported by opposition parties, could lead to an early election, with the Conservatives likely eager to capitalize on their strong polling numbers.
The Bigger Picture
Trudeau’s potential resignation represents a major turning point for the Liberal Party. Having led Canada since 2015, his leadership has been marked by both progressive successes and significant controversies. His departure would leave the party at a crossroads, tasked with the challenge of rebuilding public trust while facing a surging Conservative opposition.
In the coming weeks, the Liberal Party’s decisions will be pivotal. Will a new leader be able to revitalize the party, or will Trudeau’s exit signal the beginning of Conservative dominance in Canadian politics? Only time will tell.
